The Gears of War 3 beta has been over for a month now and that has given me some time to reflect on it. I won’t make this a game play review article, there are enough of those on the web for you to read. Instead, I’d like to write about what the beta could mean for the future of video gaming.
Gears of War 3 is by all accounts a “triple A title”. That term is taking on quite a few connotations in gaming circles. First and foremost it means money, and a lot of it. A huge up front investment is poured into these titles and along with that a huge amount of risk.
If a well financed triple A fails to produce some people somewhere are losing a huge pile of dough. And we all know when that happens, bad things follow; developers are laid off, investors fade away, and design houses shutter. The business of triple A’s is becoming an exclusive club with fewer willing to risk the investment. Any industry that produces a huge return for a high level of risk will naturally look for ways to mitigate that risk. Every investor, be it an independent association, a big publisher, or some established individuals, will be looking for ways to make a new triple A less risky; less likely to blow up in their faces as the euphoria of profits rolling in turns into the sick gut-wrenching, slow-motion realization that getting out of the investment with their shirts intact is the best they can hope for.
I think the industry may be in this state right now and Gears of War 3 could be considered an example. How many “3’s” are coming? Mass Effect 3, Call of Duty 3, Dragon Age 3, and Assassins Creed Revelations all count as evidence for this phenomenon. The publishers and the investors know these titles are going to make a profit. They are the tried and true. Heck who needs risk? They know they will be coming out of it with higher quality shirts then when they went in, maybe even a bow-tie too. I can almost hear it now: “They want more Commander Shepherd? Give it to ‘em!”
Gears of War 3 isn’t just an example of this trend, with the beta it’s setting a new bar; one that future triple A’s will be measured by. The beta was run on a scale unheard of for consoles. Partly to tweak the game for a smooth launch, and partly to drive awareness. One million beta players, one million pre-orders. Cliff Bleszinski goes on sabbatical. With what Epic just pulled off, hell, I would take a long vacation too.
Some may think this situation is well and good. The future of video gaming is heading in the right direction. Escalation on the high end. Things will go up and up. There is no way back. Some may also think this trend is narrowing the field to only the very rich players. Some may point to other industries and so-called “bubbles”. I’m no seer, I think the next couple of years will provide us the answer. I just hope whatever it is, video gaming is the better for it, and we the players, get to keep our humble gaming t-shirts when it’s all over.